Should the land expropriation bill become an absolute horrific reality, South Africa’s socio-economic climate will experience a dramatic transformation.
The land expropriation bill is not an answer to poverty and will not create an inclusive economy. It will, in fact, have the opposite effect on the economy and result in approximately an additional 2.28 million people losing their jobs.
According to dr Roelof Botha, an independent economist and part-time lecturer at the Pretoria University’s Gordon Institute of Business Studies (GIBS), the land bill will cause South Africa to regress into a perpetual state of recession.
This, in turn, will result in a downgrading of the South African economy to junk status by Moody’s Investor Service.
Dr. Botha decided to do a macroeconomic study regarding the effect of the land expropriation bill on South Africa. He was assisted by prof Ilse Botha of the Johannesburg University who did the econometric modeling, Keith Lockwood from GIBS, Lumkile Mondi of Wits University and Wandile Sihlobo, a member of the panel of agriculture created by Pres Ramaphosa.
The Study Results shows a spiraling downward trend which affects everything and everyone in this country.
The study proves that a radical approach to land reform will lead to a total collapse of the country’s economy as in the case of Venezuela and Zimbabwe. The government can expect a sharp decline in government income and a steep rise in the budgetary deficit.
This will result in severe shortages of basic services such as education, health services, the maintenance of infrastructures, the fight against poverty, etc. In addition, it will lead to a further migration of highly qualified professionals who are able to pursue their profession in another part of the world, causing a further economic deterioration.
Inflation will skyrocket while citizens face starvation. As in Zimbabwe and elsewhere, it will cause astronomical social and political instability and a massive rise in criminality. The land bill also threatens the very livelihood of South Africans.
This study paints a very dark future for South Africa if the government persists in its idiotic notions. It will affect all businesses negatively, especially those in the Tourism and Hospitality industry. International tourists will not grace South Africa with their presence as the increasing criminality and unsafe conditions will lead them to visit other safer stabler countries.
Venezuela As Example Of The Future Of The Tourism And Hospitality Industry In South Africa:
The resort island of Margarita Island in Venezuela was once mobbed with international tourists who loved the sparkling blue water, fine white sand and flawless sunny days. Now, swimming pools are empty, toilets don’t flush and many hotels can’t afford to offer meal service.
International tourism dried up and tourists are shunning Venezuela as it has become one of the most violent countries in the world. The complex currency system furthermore makes it difficult to change money. Violent crime, including murder, armed robbery, kidnapping, drive-by shootings, and carjackings, is endemic.” The number of domestic visitors has dwindled to a trickle.
A decade ago, 40 percent of Margarita Island tourists came from abroad. Now just 4 percent of tourists are international. At one hotel, in the former coastal hotspot of Todasana, the business had fallen by 80 percent over the past year.
The crash has been devastating to people working in tourism, who are also struggling with severe shortages and raging inflation plaguing the rest of the country.
One of the most infuriating problems for locals is the daily water cuts government critics blame on lack of infrastructure maintenance. Hotel manager Luis Munoz says he counts himself fortunate to see running water every two weeks. Like most Venezuelans, Munoz spends hours each week queuing in lines to try buying basic goods at subsidized prices.
The few guests who still book his rooms must pack their own soap, towels and even toilet paper. He manages to keep his hotel’s murky pool filled from a well. But food shortages have forced him to suspend meal service.
Late last year, a number of airlines announced they would no longer fly in and out of the country, due to concerns over violence and political uncertainty.
US airlines United and Delta, Germany’s Lufthansa, Air Canada, Aeromexico, Alitalia, Colombian airline Avianca and Argentine Airlines all announced they were withdrawing services to Venezuela, prompting fears the country would be effectively wiped off the travel map.
International Air Transport Association (IATA) vice president Peter Cerda said the situation has become increasingly difficult. According to Cerda most of IATA’s members have left Venezuela as Venezuela is becoming practically more disconnected from the rest of the world, above all by air.